It has been mid-May since I published one of these analyses. back then, Biden led Trump in the electoral college with a mean of 348 to 190 votes.
Now, with over 40 new polls, Biden still leads. In the 10,000 simulated elections, Biden won all 10,000 times. Biden received (on average) 354 to Trump’s 184 electoral votes. If the election was today, we would expect Biden to win with a greater than 99.9% probability.